Agnico Eagle Mines Limited (AEM) at 216.59: wind filling the sails again (As-of: 2026-02-13)
Summary
- View: Buy View (Trend Following)
- Conviction: Medium
- Comment: Total score 74.6/100 (Value 69.7, Technical 70.8, Risk 92.0). Last 216.59, support/resistance 170.45/222.99, 30D annualized volatility 57.4%.
When we open Agnico Eagle Mines Limited's chart today, rhythm matters more than noise. In this phase, direction is mixed and conviction depends on incoming data, so it is better to define 'what invalidates the view' before making size decisions.
Value Logic
The value case is straightforward. If Agnico Eagle Mines Limited sustains earnings quality, and the market's pricing (P/E 24.4, P/B 4.4) does not compress too aggressively, the current valuation can remain explainable over time.
Technical Analysis
Technically, this is a balanced between conviction and doubt zone. That makes level management (support 170.45 / resistance 222.99) more important than emotional entries.
Core Chart
Financial Metrics
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Total Score | 74.6/100 |
| Value/Technical/Risk | 69.7 / 70.8 / 92.0 |
| Last Price | 216.59 |
| 1M/3M/6M Return | 8.1% / 28.3% / 62.4% |
| 30D Annualized Volatility | 57.4% |
| Max Drawdown | -16.4% |
| 52W Range | 95.09 ~ 222.99 |
| SMA20/60/120 | 206.71 / 185.21 / 172.89 |
| RSI(14) | 50.5 |
| Support/Resistance | 170.45 / 222.99 |
| Revenue Growth | 60.3% |
| Operating Margin | 59.6% |
| ROE | 19.6% |
| D/E | 0.01 |
| P/E / P/B | 24.4 / 4.4 |
| Dividend Yield | 0.8% |
Dividend (History & Sustainability)
Current sustainability assessment: Healthy.
| Year | DPS | Payout Ratio |
|---|---|---|
| 2022 | 1.60 | 18.1% |
| 2023 | 1.60 | 18.1% |
| 2024 | 1.60 | 18.1% |
| 2025 | 1.60 | 18.1% |
| 2026 | 0.00 | 18.1% |
Key Risks
Risk management matters more than perfect forecasting. For Agnico Eagle Mines Limited, this section is less a warning and more a protection framework for position discipline around leverage (D/E 0.01), valuation sensitivity (P/E 24.4), and volatility (57.4%).
- 30D annualized volatility at 57.4% implies larger event-driven swings; stop discipline is required.
- Consensus revision direction and management guidance tone can dominate short-term price direction.
- Regulatory, legal, or policy shifts can rapidly reframe valuation assumptions.
- Competitive pressure in core segments may erode share or margin resilience.
Conclusion (Bull / Base / Bear)
| Scenario | Thesis | Trigger | Target Price | Expected Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bull | Earnings surprise and valuation resilience occur together | Faster revenue growth with upward guidance revisions | 260.62 | 20.3% |
| Base | Results land near consensus while valuation stays neutral | Margin defense with neutral positioning/flow | 232.70 | 7.4% |
| Bear | Growth decelerates and valuation compresses simultaneously | Guidance cuts with higher risk-premium pressure | 190.81 | -11.9% |
The base-path target is 232.70. However, the spread between bull (20.3%) and bear (-11.9%) outcomes is wide, so conditional response matters more than static conviction.
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